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| Unauthorized Immigrants Working in Oregon | ||
| 04/28/2006 | ||
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Introduction By: Art Ayre, State Employment Economist Unauthorized immigration has been in the news a lot lately. Requesters have asked us for information on the number of unauthorized immigrants working in Oregon, or even in a specific city in Oregon. While we don't have data at the city level, we have been able to estimate that 70,000 to 88,000 unauthorized immigrants were working or looking for work (i.e., in the labor force) in Oregon in 2005. Of these people, between 63,000 and 83,000 were probably working. The following paragraphs provide the background for these estimates. The Situation in 2000 In 2003, the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) estimated there were 90,000 unauthorized immigrants in Oregon in 2000. This estimate includes all ages, not just adults or those in the labor force. To gauge the number of unauthorized immigrant workers in Oregon, we must reduce the estimate of the total unauthorized immigrant population so that it includes only adults and then reduce it further so that it includes only those adults in the labor force. The Pew Hispanic Center estimated the nation’s unauthorized immigrant population at 5.4 million men, 3.9 million women, and 1.8 million children in March 2005. Adults made up 84 percent of the total. Data from the 2000 Census show that adults (age 18 or older) made up 76 percent (115,304 out of 152,637) of those in Oregon who were not born in the U.S. and who immigrated to the U.S. between 1990 and 2000. Using the range of 76 percent to 84 percent for Oregon’s adult portion of the state’s estimated 90,000 unauthorized immigrants in 2000, this adult population would have been between 68,400 and 75,600. Oregon’s Adult unauthorized Immigrants in 2000 Low estimate: 90,000 population x 76% adults = 68,400 High estimate: 90,000 population x 84% adults = 75,600 How many of these 68,400 to 75,600 adult unauthorized immigrants were in the Oregon labor force in 2000? The Pew Hispanic Center estimated 77 percent of adult unauthorized immigrants (92 percent of men and 56 percent of women) participate in the nation’s labor force. Because many of Oregon’s unauthorized immigrants are believed to be Hispanic, it seems reasonable to consider the labor force participation rate of Oregon’s Hispanic population. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated in its 2004 Geographic Profile Table 14 that, of Oregon's 224,000 civilian noninstitutional Hispanic population (age 16+), about 79 percent were in the labor force (90 percent for men and 64 percent for women). Using the range of 77 percent to 79 percent for Oregon’s unauthorized immigrant labor force participation rate, our estimate of unauthorized immigrants in the labor force in 2000 would have been between 52,700 and 59,700. Oregon’s unauthorized Immigrants in the Labor Force in 2000 Low estimate: 68,400 adults x 77% in labor force = 52,700 High estimate: 75,600 adults x 79% in labor force = 59,700 Of those in the labor force, some portion would have been unemployed. The Pew Hispanic Center estimated a 5.8 percent unemployment rate in March 2005 for those unauthorized immigrants who arrived in the U.S. between 2000 and 2005, and a 4.1 percent rate for those who arrived prior to 2001. The estimated unemployment rate for Hispanics in Oregon in 2004 was almost 10 percent. Using unemployment rates of 5 percent to 10 percent (or “employment rates” of 95 percent to 90 percent) as a range, our estimate of the number of unauthorized immigrants employed in Oregon in 2000 would be 47,400 to 56,700. Oregon’s unauthorized Immigrants Employed in 2000 Low estimate: 52,700 in labor force x 90% employed = 47,400 High estimate: 59,700 in labor force x 95% employed = 56,700 The Situation in 2005 In June 2005, the Pew Hispanic Center wrote, “In recent years some 700,000 unauthorized migrants have arrived annually” in the U.S. In March 2006, the Center estimated that the nation's growth in the unauthorized population has been more than 500,000 per year since 2000. These two estimates provide a range of annual increase. What portion of this annual increase occurs in Oregon? According to Homeland Security's Office of Immigration Statistics, Oregon had close to its pro-rata share of persons born in Mexico who became legal permanent residents of the U.S. between 2000 and 2003. If geographic patterns for unauthorized immigrants matched those of people becoming legal permanent residents and if Oregon received its pro-rata share of the nation’s estimated 500,000 to 700,000 unauthorized immigrants per year through 2005, Oregon’s total unauthorized immigrant population would have grown by 30,000 to 42,000 over this five-year period. Unauthorized Immigrants Added to Oregon’s Population From 2000 to 2005 Low estimate: 500,000/year x 5 years x 1.2% (Oregon’s share of U.S.) = 30,000 High estimate: 700,000/year x 5 years x 1.2% (Oregon’s share of U.S.) = 42,000 The state’s unauthorized immigrant population in 2005 would be between 120,000 and 132,000. (Note: In an April 26, 2006 Fact Sheet, the Pew Hispanic Center estimated Oregon’s 2005 unauthorized migrant population at between 125,000 and 175,000.) Oregon’s Unauthorized Immigrants in 2005 Low estimate: 90,000 (in 2000) + 30,000 (from 2000 to 2005) = 120,000 High estimate: 90,000 (in 2000) + 42,000 (from 2000 to 2005) = 132,000 Relying on assumptions listed above, between 70,000 and 88,000 of Oregon’s illegal immigrant population (rounded to the nearest thousand) would be in the labor force in 2005. Oregon’s Unauthorized Immigrants in the Labor Force in 2005 Low estimate: 120,000 population x 76% adults x 77% in labor force = 70,200 High estimate: 132,000 population x 84% adults x 79% in labor force = 87,600 Of those in the labor force, between 63,000 and 83,000 (rounded to the nearest thousand) would be employed in Oregon in 2005. Oregon’s Unauthorized Immigrants Employed in 2005 Low estimate: 70,200 in labor force x 90% employed = 63,200 High estimate: 87,600 in labor force x 95% employed = 83,200 Oregon’s total resident employment in 2005 was estimated at 1,745,811. unauthorized immigrants comprised between 3.6 percent and 4.8 percent of Oregon’s employed residents in 2005. Unauthorized Immigrant Share of Oregon Resident Employment in 2005 Low estimate: 63,200 unauthorized immigrants employed / 1,745,811 total = 3.6% High estimate: 83,200 unauthorized immigrants employed / 1,745,811 total = 4.8% For more information, contact Art Ayre, State Employment Economist, at 503-947-1268 or Art.L.Ayre@state.or.us |
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